February Poll Numbers in Guatemala

Borge y Asociados carried out a nationwide survey of 1,000 between February 5 and 11 about their voting intentions in September's elections. The biggest mover and shaker is General Otto Perez Molina. The percentage of people indicating that they will vote for Perez Molina increased 4% from December's poll. Perez Molina has a comfortable advantage over his main rival, Sandra Torres.

To I am sure UNE's consternation, Torres' numbers have not budged since December. However, it's still possible that her numbers are low because the survey was not a representative sample of the population and relied too heavily upon responses from urban areas of the country. Her numbers might also be low because she has yet to be announced as UNE's official candidate.

In what will likely turn out to be a two person race between Perez Molina and Torres, a runoff does not help Torres' chances. When given a choice between Perez Molina and Torres in a runoff election, 61% favored the General while 20% favored Torres. The governing party gets more bad news when respondents are asked if there is a candidate that they would not vote for under any circumstances. 

Twenty-three percent (23%) of the respondents said that they would not vote for Torres, 8% for Arzu, and 8% for Perez Molina. While the elections remain seven months away, there's no reason to think that Perez Molina will not be the next president of Guatemala.

(See here for December's poll.)