Perez promises to improve security during first six months

President-elect Otto Perez Molina insists that security will improve during his first six months in office. I sure hope so. However, El Nuevo Herald then goes on to report that 

Official data indicate that 18 people die violently each day in Guatemala and that the homicide rate per 100,000 population reaches 48, six times the world average.

Look, if you are telling the world that, on average, 18 people per day or 6,570 per year die violent deaths in Guatemala, Otto Perez is going to look like a god-send even if things get much worse six months into office.

Here are the murders that have been committed over the last decade as reported by the PNC in (La Prensa Grafica).

2011 estimate is based upon 4733 during first ten months and 946 for Nov-Dec.

If you are going to measure whether Perez lowers crime and or the country's murder rate, you need to try to find recent data.

I'm fine with statistics from 2010 since we have the full year available. However, that number is about 600 fewer murders than what you are using - 10%!

With six-plus weeks remaining this year, we have a pretty good idea where murders will end up, but 2010 is acceptable. However, why pick 6,500 murders from 2009?