Where's the homicide rate going in Guatemala?

Yesterday, Siglo XXI highlighted an article on the front of its webpage Mafia Violence Prevails in Election Year. In it, they refer to official sources that claim over 5,500 murders had been committed in Guatemala so far this year, making it one of the most violent years in its history. I had yet to come across November murder statistics, so I held back and hoped that November just wasn't as violent as the article made it out to appear.

And I had the same concerns about the murder statistics as Carlos Mendoza. According to the National Civilian Police, 4,733 murders were committed during the first ten months of the year. That meant, if the article was being accurate, over 767 murders would have had to have been carried out in November! Fortunately, no such thing happened as 459 murders were reported in November.

Guatemala now counts 5,192 murders heading into the last month of the year. If 472 murders occur in December (that's the monthly average murder count so far this year), Guatemala will finish the year having suffered through approximately 5,664 murders.

Obviously, we all want the number of murders to get as close to zero as possible. However, one also has to recognize how much progress has made in reducing murders in Guatemala in 2010 and 2011.

I did see an article from InSight earlier in the week that actually reported murders were in decline even as Guatemalans still feel the security situation has deteriorated. That's good and better than most of the other articles we read about murders spiraling out of control in Guatemala. So thank you.

On the other hand, it's up to Siglo XXI and other media organization not to post articles with incorrect murder statistics. While Guatemala is by no means entirely safe, their incorrect reporting helps to feed the growing sense of insecurity in the country.

Guatemala's Crime-Fighting Prosecutor's Job is Safe, For Now

Hannah Stone at InSight Crime has a really good article on Guatemala's Attorney General Claudia Paz y Paz entitled Guatemala's Crime-Fighting Prosecutor's Job is Safe, For Now. In recent weeks, a smear campaign against Paz y Paz has been orchestrated in the major means of communications.

There have also been concerns that President-elect Otto Perez Molina would remove her so as to put an end to prosecutions against former military officials. Fortunately, Perez met with Paz y Paz on Tuesday to assure her that she would remain in her post when he takes office in January. That's great news because, as I mentioned last month, Paz y Paz is someone that will help the incoming administration to continue to right the ship in Guatemala.

In Plaza Publica's defense of Paz y Paz the other day, they highlighted her role going after Gloria Torres and her daughters.

This case can be interpreted for those who have not noticed, as a sign of Paz y Paz's independence from the governing UNE, a party that would have preferred another lawyer instead of her at the front of the MP.

On the other hand, I read several comments on El Periodico's website the other day explaining Paz y Paz's decision to go after Gloria Torres as having been driven by a desire to deflect attention away from President Alvaro Colom and former first lady Sandra Torres. One more thing. Paz y Paz, in the same article I think, was faulted for helping to cover up Rosenberg's murder.

Obviously, I don't subscribe to this explanation, but it's still important to know what some other people are saying in Guatemala. There are usually more than two sides to every story.

Guatemalan Foreign Minister criticizes US

On Wednesday, Foreign Minister Haroldo Rodas criticized President Barack Obama's efforts, or lack thereof, at extending Temporary Protected Status (TPS) to Guatemalan nationals residing in the United States and moving forward on comprehensive immigration reform.

Rodas is probably right but coming out like this is not going to help his replacement, Harold Caballeros. However, it's more fair to blame Obama for not moving forward on TPS which his administration could extend without congressional input. There wouldn't even be any political "fallout" from TPS. Even though most Americans tend to lean towards supporting some version of comprehensive immigration reform, it would be a much tougher battle to get through congress.

And while I am in favor of comprehensive immigration reform, I have a feeling that by the time it ever moves through the House and the Senate and then is signed into law by the president, no one is going to like what it looks like.

Colom should respond to 28,000 murdered

According to Sergio Morales, Guatemala's human rights ombudsmen, President Alvaro Colom should respond to the 28,000 murders committed during his four year in office. However, I'm not entirely sure as to what numbers he is referring to.

As you can see in the table above, the total number of murders in Guatemala increased sharply from 2000 to 2009. President Colom took office in January 2008. Murders then decreased in 2010 and, while this year isn't over yet, it looks like 2011 will again have fewer murders.

According to the National Civilian Police's reporting, 18,750 Guatemalans were killed during Colom's first three years in office. For Morales' numbers to be accurate, Guatemala would have to have suffered another 10,000 murders in 2011!!! "Fortunately," Guatemala is is only on pace for between 5,600-5,700 murders.

The total number of murders and the murder rates were terrible each year of Colom's term. However, they improved in 2010 and 2011. And 2011's total look to be the lowest that the country has recorded since 2005.

Spain asks for extradition in UCA Jesuits killings

On Friday, the Spanish government accepted judge Eloy Velasco's request that it formally request the extradition of fifteen former Salvadoran military officials, two of whom currently reside in the US. (AP, Contrapunto). 

The men are wanted in connection with the massacre of six Jesuit priests, their housekeeper and her daughter at the University of Central American in November 1989. The Spanish judge wants them extradited so that they can stand trial on charges of murder, terrorism and crimes against humanity.

I still can't see the men actually being extradited to Spain. In the past, legal processes begun in Spain do seem to have had an effect on helping to start or give extra support to proceedings in Chile and Guatemala. I am hopeful that Spain's actions will have the same effect in El Salvador. However, for the most part, the Salvadoran courts and President Funes have shown little indication that they are overly interested in reopening  the case in El Salvador. 

31st Anniversary of U.S. Churchwomen Murders

On December 2, 1980, four U.S. churchwomen were raped and murdered by allies of the U.S. government in El Salvador. From Scott McCabe of the Washington Examiner

The night before flying into El Salvador, Ford read a passage from a homily by Archbishop Oscar Romero, who had been assassinated nine months earlier, "[O]ne who is committed to the poor must run the same fate as the poor, and in El Salvador we know what the fate of the poor signifies: to disappear, be tortured, to be held captive -- and to be found dead."

The next day, members of the El Salvadoran national guard stopped their vehicle. The women were tortured, raped and murdered.

Then December 6th is the anniversary of the 1982 massacre of Dos Erres by the Guatemalan military in the Peten. And the 11th is the anniversary of the 1981 massacre at El Mozote by the Salvadoran military in Morazan.

Click here for what I wrote last year on the Churchwomen murders.

Rubio and Menendez condemn Ortega

From the Nicaragua Dispatch

U.S. Senators Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Bob Menendez (D-NJ) today introduced a bipartisan resolution “In support of the democratic aspirations of the Nicaraguan people and calling attention to the continuing deterioration of constitutional order in Nicaragua,” according to a press release from the office of Sen. Rubio.

Wow, it would have been nice had they issued the same condemnations following the 2009 coup in Honduras. See also Has Ortega fatigue reached tipping point?