Where's the homicide rate going in Guatemala?

Yesterday, Siglo XXI highlighted an article on the front of its webpage Mafia Violence Prevails in Election Year. In it, they refer to official sources that claim over 5,500 murders had been committed in Guatemala so far this year, making it one of the most violent years in its history. I had yet to come across November murder statistics, so I held back and hoped that November just wasn't as violent as the article made it out to appear.

And I had the same concerns about the murder statistics as Carlos Mendoza. According to the National Civilian Police, 4,733 murders were committed during the first ten months of the year. That meant, if the article was being accurate, over 767 murders would have had to have been carried out in November! Fortunately, no such thing happened as 459 murders were reported in November.

Guatemala now counts 5,192 murders heading into the last month of the year. If 472 murders occur in December (that's the monthly average murder count so far this year), Guatemala will finish the year having suffered through approximately 5,664 murders.

Obviously, we all want the number of murders to get as close to zero as possible. However, one also has to recognize how much progress has made in reducing murders in Guatemala in 2010 and 2011.

I did see an article from InSight earlier in the week that actually reported murders were in decline even as Guatemalans still feel the security situation has deteriorated. That's good and better than most of the other articles we read about murders spiraling out of control in Guatemala. So thank you.

On the other hand, it's up to Siglo XXI and other media organization not to post articles with incorrect murder statistics. While Guatemala is by no means entirely safe, their incorrect reporting helps to feed the growing sense of insecurity in the country.