Confusing Crime Statistics from Siglo XXI

The last column includes November and December estimates.

Last time we looked, Siglo XXI threw on its front page odd murder statistics. This time, it takes on all forms of violence. According to Siglo XXI's reporting using PNC statistics, kidnappings (los secuestros), extortion (extorsiones) and the robbing of cell phones (robos de celulares) have increased over the last four years. 

There were 213 reported kidnappings in 2008 and 104 during the first ten months of 2011. So Guatemala should end up with about 120. That's a pretty big decrease and, from what I can read, should be celebrated rather than hyped as an increase. The final numbers should be below the 133 kidnappings reported in 2010.

They report 1,787 cases of extortion reported in 2008 and 3,345 during the first ten months of the year. If we estimate 334 in November and another 334 in December, Guatemala will end up with around 4,000 reported extortion attempts, an alarming increase over four years. Any good news? Well, if the year ends with 4,000 extortion cases, that is 200 less than last year. 

Okay, how about cell phones? 37,225 were reported stolen in 2008, 33,758 in 2009, and 31,479 in 2010. They don't give 2011 statistics, but from my limited math skills, I read these numbers indicating a downward trend as well.

No need to tackle homicides again, but here goes. If Guatemala finishes the year with ~5,600 homicides, it will be the lowest since 2005! 2009, 2008, and 2010 will remain the years with the greatest numbers of murders, but 2011 will continue what we all hope is a continued downward trend. 

Given that most media outlets seem to report that things were rosy before President Colom took office, I should just repeat that 5,885 were murdered in 2006 and 5,781 in 2007. So, again, murders will be down in Colom's last year compared to his first year as well as compared to the two year's prior to his taking office. 

You can read the rest of the table yourself, but you get the picture. Extortion, stolen cars, and reports of intra-family violence have worsened. Statistics on murders, kidnappings, and bus assaults have improved. Cell phone robberies were down in 2010 compared to 2008 (no 2011 estimates).

Unfortunately, they do not provide statistics from 2006 and 2007. That would give us a better idea as to what was going on during the two years prior to the Colom presidency. For example, Mario Polanco at GAM criticizes the administration because over 5,000 murders have occurred each year without reporting that there were also over 5,000 murders in 2005, 2006, and 2007. 

Or they let Mario Mérida, an "expert in security" say that there was an increase in crime during the first three years of Colom's term and some improvement during the first three-quarters of this year. That's better, but not entirely accurate. 2010 looks to have been a better year statistically than 2009. 

And none of this takes into consideration growth over the last four years. With more people, cars, and cell phones any decrease in the total numbers of murders, robberies, etc. looks even better in terms of the rate. From my reading of the situation, crime increased for much of the last decade and continued to worsen during the first two years of Colom's administration. However, murder, extortion, kidnapping, and bus assaults have shown improvement the last two years.