April Poll Numbers in Guatemala

Following Sandra Torres's announcement that she and her husband were divorcing so that she could run for president, I ventured to guess that her decision would probably not play too well in the next poll carried out by Borge y Asociados.

Well, El Periodico just published the results of the April survey and it looks like Sandra Torres might have closed the gap with Otto Perez Molina of the Patriotic Party. Instead of falling below 10%, her support appears to have increased to 21%, up from 13% in March. Perez Molina still leads by a comfortable margin at 43%.

Why did Torres' numbers go up instead of down? Well, it could be that she was polling low in previous polls because she had not officially been nominated. Once nominated, UNE supporters rallied around her. Given the time between the last poll, her announcement as candidate, and this April poll, it's possible that after an initial decline in support she has recovered to over 20% national support.

Finally, we can't really compare the poll results month to month because the manner in which the polling company posed the questions were too different. In the April poll, Borge y Asociados used a simulated ballot with all the candidates listed. whereas the February and March polls the question on voting intention was open. Respondents apparently had to come up with their own candidates without prodding.

Things could still change, but Perez Molina remains the strong favorite.

In other election news, GANA is proposing Roberto Alejos as Torres' running mate. As of today, GANA and UNE are working together to compete in September. However, the alliance might not hold as it has already broken down in the departments of Guatemala and El Progreso where each party will present its own congressional list.

Meanwhile the executive committee of the URNG is proposing the environmentalist and leader of the Center for Environmental Legal and Social Action (CALAS) Yuri Mellini as its presidential candidate.It's not clear whether Mellini will be acceptable to the other members of the Frente Amplio.

Finally, Alvaro Arzu looks set to be reelected as mayor of Guatemala City. Forty-six percent favor Arzu over his nearest competitor, Alejandro Sinibaldi of the Patriotic Party with 22%.