Crime and Investment in Guatemala

Here are two quick reads on Guatemala. The first comes from Abraham Samuel Perez on Presidential Divorce, Investment and Economic Growth in Guatemala at the Guatemala Times. He argues that macroeconomically speaking, Guatemala is relatively attractive compared to its peers for foreign direct investment. Where Guatemala fails relative to its competitors is in terms of its scores on socioeconomic indicators.

A second article to take a look at comes from Elyssa Pachico at InSight - Organized Crime in the Americas. In How Much Is Guatemala Arming the Zetas?, Pachico takes a stab at how many weapons the Guatemalan army is providing the Mexican Zetas. The short answer is no one really knows.

Mexican groups have doubtlessly obtained AK-47s and grenades from Cold War arsenals in Guatemala, and even El Salvador. But breaking down the origins of Mexico's arms supply, in order to assign political responsibility for the gun trafficking problem, will likely prove fruitless. What is clear is that the U.S. has a set of laws that are indirectly feeding weapons into the hands of Mexican gangs, while in Guatemala the problem is more akin to a lack of proper law enforcement.

Two thoughts. One it probably doesn't matter. Should we somehow successfully cut off weapons from the US flowing south, I can't imagine that it would severely limit the cartels ability to aquire high-powered weapons. I'm not an expert here, but I can't imagine that it would do more than bring about a marginal increase in the cost of purchasing these weapons.

Second, it sounds like the Cold War all over again. The Salvadoran guerrillas purchased weapons from the East Bloc and other Soviet-aligned nations, the Nicaraguan Sandinistas, the Salvadoran military, anti-communist Guatemalans, and US-based arms dealers.