Peten State of Siege Extended

President Alvaro Colom extended Peten's state of siege earlier this week. The state of siege was initially put in place following the massacre of twenty-seven people at the Los Cocos Ranch. According to Attorney General Claudia Paz y Paz, Guatemalan authorities have already arrested dozens of people connected to the massacre. Interior Minister Carlos Menocal, however, said that authorities need more time to improve the security situation in the department.

Call me skeptical. December's state of siege in Alta Verapaz also led to the arrests of several Zetas as well as increased repression against civil society organizations. However, once the state of siege ended, the Zetas moved right back in. They're a little less conspicuous now, but they're back. It's not clear that it had any impact whatsoever.

Alta Verapaz is also smaller than the Peten, located closer to the capital, doesn't really border Mexico, and is much more populated. The Peten shares a very long border with Mexico, is sparsely populated, and is not nearly accessible to the capital. If a siege couldn't work in Alta Verapaz, there's no way one will work in the Peten, a department that comprises one-third of the nation's entire territory.

The state of siege is unlikely to work (long-term reduction in drug trafficking and organized crime) in the Peten and might not even have been necessary. While the massacre of farm workers was terrible, violence in the Peten has been on the decline in recent years. According to Carlos Mendoza,

Homicide rates per 100 000 inhabitants in Petén reveal that violence was on the decline, compared to 2008 when it recorded a rate of 77, which fell to 71 in 2009 and reached 60 in 2010.That explains why, with a total of 366 homicides last year, ranking improved Petén department of homicidal violence, to occupy the 7th position out of 22.This means that in 2010 there were six departments even more violent than Petén.

The violence is extreme in Peten and Guatemala, but homicide rates have been surprisingly flat for the last several years.

That's why I said that one should not have concluded that Guatemala was on the verge of becoming a failed state even following the Los Cocos massacre. It was a horrible event, but one event does not make the country a failed state.

And while the state of siege probably won't work and might not have been needed, maybe it will make Guatemalan's feel better and make it look to the international community that Guatemalan authorities are taking the threat of organized crime and drug trafficking seriously.