After four hours of deliberation, the magistrates of the Guatemalan Supreme Electoral Tribunal rejected Sandra Torres, UNE and GANA's petition to overturn the decision of the Registro de Ciudadanos (RC). The RC had denied Torres' inscription as presidential candidate earlier in the week because she had committed fraud in getting divorced so that she could get around Article 186 of the constitution. The vote was three to two against.
Orlando Blanco, UNE's campaign manager, said that there are "evil intentions" and "a very strong conspiracy" behind the efforts to register the UNE-GANA presidential candidate. Torres herself said
"Those who do not want me to register are the dark powers behind the million [dollar] campaigns that are now financing presidential candidates. This dark power of money, funding campaigns, where they have billboards everywhere. I will register by faith and will of God."
Torres has another three days to appeal to the TSE before moving upon to the Supreme Court of Justice (CSJ). If the CSJ upholds the ban on Torres, she can then appeal to the Constitutional Court which is the last hurrah. All this has to be done by July 11th, the last day to inscribe candidates.
On the one hand, who really cares? According to every poll out there, Torres is likely to be crushed at the ballot box. Torres is not thinking about what is in the bast interests of her party and the people of Guatemala. Torres is only thinking about Torres.
On the other hand, she (and many others) probably believe that she is the country's last best hope to prevent the ascendancy of General Otto Perez Molina to the presidency. While she is twenty-to-thirty points behind Perez, she is probably the only candidate with a sliver of a chance to defeat him and she must do everything possible to stop the general. Here's why.
Perez was a military officer in Quiche, one of the department's that suffered the most under the government's 1980s scorched-earth program. Perez and the Patriotic Party's promise this weekend to bring peace to the Ixcan probably sent shivers down the spines of many of the people there.
In his 2007 and 2011 campaigns, Perez promised to take a harder line against organized crime and drug trafficking should he be elected. For many, the Colom administration hasn't cared all that much about human rights during the states of siege in Alta Verapaz or Peten and doesn't seem too concerned with investigating human rights violations against civil society. While no one expects a similar scorched-earth program to root out crime should Perez be elected, human rights are likely to be even less of a concern.
There has also been movement towards holding military officials accountable for war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in recent years. It's quite likely that ongoing investigations into military officials involved in state repression and their prosecution will come to a halt under a Perez government. For those looking to indict and prosecute Perez, that hope will be dashed with his election as president.
Finally, the Colom's record of support for CICIG hasn't been all that great but there have been advances in rooting out corrupt officials and convicting arresting former high-level government officials. It's not clear that a Perez victory will make CICIG's work any easier. As a result, the country will return to the corruption and lawlessness of the Portillo administration.
There are important reasons to reject Torres' attempt to dance around the constitution and become president. However, for those interested in a more comprehensive approach to organized crime and drug trafficking (increased spending on social programs in addition to mano dura policies), holding former military officers accountable for crimes committed during the country's conflict (including Perez himself), and supporting the work of CICIG, Torres might be your only choice in September. Perhaps that is why Torres is willing to go to such great lengths to be president.
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