More Poll Numbers in Guatemala

On Tuesday, El Periodico published the results of its June poll conducted by Borge y Asociados. These latest poll numbers are similar to last week's Vox Latina and Prodatos numbers where General Otto Perez Molina retains a comfortable lead over his main competitor (?) Sandra Torres. If the elections were held today. 40.1% would vote Perez and 15.2% would support Torres. While Perez has increased his lead over Torres, it is still not enough to assure him a first round victory.

Carrying out survey research in Guatemala is obviously not the easiest enterprise and it's possible that the surveys do not accurately reflect the true level of support for the candidates. However in the eleven polls conducted since December, Perez Molina has averaged 40% of the likely vote and Torres has averaged 15%. While Torres' numbers have fluctuated a bit, there hasn't been much variation in Perez Molina's level of support.

It's hard to envision a late surge in support for Torres if she somehow manages to get herself on the ballot. Surprisingly, even with Torres' troubles, no other candidate has surpassed ten percent of the voters' intentions. For now, the only question that remains is whether Perez Molina can save the country several million dollars and win a first round victory.