2nd Poll has Perez Molina in Lead

El Diario 24

According to a recent CID / Gallup survey, Otto Pérez Molina of the Patriotic Party has maintained his lead over Manuel Baldizon of Lider with seventeen days remaining before the second round. The survey was carried out among 1,215 Guatemala between October 9 and 16 and has a margin of error of 2.8%.

39.7% said that they intended to vote for Pérez Molina in round two. Baldizón followed seven and one-half points behind with 32.2%. The remaining 28% didn't mark their simulated ballots. If you don't take the null ballots into account, Pérez Molina leads 55% to 45%. 

CID/Gallup's poll is a bit different from the Prensa Libre / Prodatos poll carried out the week before (October 4 - 8). In that poll, Pérez Molina led 56% to 44%. However, when you factored in the undecided / null vote, Pérez Molina had 49.4%, Baldizón 39.2%, and 11% for the remaining categories. 

Remember, polling in Guatemala is not as reliable as when done in the United States. And I imagine that the rains of the last week are going to cause problems on election day. If anything, that is going to hurt Baldizón who has more support in the rural areas, precisely those areas cut off from the floods.

While the race could still go either way, Pérez Molina remains the odds on favorite.