Homicides up in Guatemala?

Yesterday, I came up with several questions about the violence in Guatemala. It wasn't an exhaustive list of questions and one group that I didn't question was nongovernmental organizations.

Why do some NGOs continue to write about an increase in the murder rate when it sure doesn't appear that it is increasing? Surely, they're not working hard to get Perez Molina elected.

Then later that day, the highly respected Mutual Support Group (GAM) announced that2,496 murders occurred during the first nine months of the year in Guatemala, a three percent increase over the same period in 2010. And I thought that that's not good.

The director of the Mutual Support Group (GAM), Mario Polanco said at a news conference that the 85.66% of the crimes committed between January and September were with guns.

He explained that of the 2.496 killed, 2.136 are men, including 40 children and 360 women, of which 9 are minors.

Polanco said the killings increased by 3% over the first nine months of 2010 when there were 2.421 homicides.

That didn't sound like go to well with my post on how murders are in decline. However, we have to remember that GAM doesn't actually measure homicides. GAM tracks homicides reported in the news. Carlos Mendoza at CABI tackled this on Thursday as well. Since they only count homicides covered in the media, they always under report, to varying degrees, how many people are actually murdered each month.

It would be more accurate to report that, based upon GAM's numbers, the Guatemalan media has reported 3% more murders during the first nine months of 2011 compared to the same period in 2010. That’s not the total number of murders, just what the media has reported. Unfortunately, one then has to ask why the Guatemalan media has reported on more murders in 2011 compared to 2010 when the number of murders documented by the National Civilian Police has gone down during that time period.

Honestly, I wish the GAM's numbers were accurate. If they were accurate, Guatemala would be on a pace for approximately 3,328 murders in 2011 rather than the 3,900 - 4,100 we think that it is.