Social Assistance Policies and the Presidential Vote in Latin America

Matthew L. Layton and Amy Erica Smith from Vanderbilt University have a new report out for AmericasBarometer using survey data from the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP). 

Layton and Smith find that citizens who benefit from conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs are more likely to vote for an incumbent party than are people who do not benefit from these CCT programs. The impact of these CCT programs on hypothetical votes is strongest in Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela. While one obviously does not want politicians to use these CCT programs simply for political gain (See Lemonade International with h/t to Tim Hoiland), the preliminary evidence is that they do reap electoral benefits.   

Here is the executive summary from Social Assistance Policies and the Presidential Vote in Latin America

In this Insights report we use a cross-national analysis of nine Latin American countries to determine what correlations, if any, exist between participation in social assistance programs, including conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs, and support for the incumbent presidential candidate or party. We find that in almost every country examined, social assistance recipients are more likely to vote for the incumbent than non-recipients, even after accounting for social class, economic perceptions, and national context. These results highlight that social programs have political effects in addition to their social and economic effects.

In the 2011 Guatemalan elections, we don't know whether the incumbent party would have benefited electorally from its CCT programs. They would have needed a presidential candidate.