No, it's not clear that some of Guatemala's violence has moved to Honduras. It's possible, but the slight improvement in Guatemala's murder rate really can't explain the takeoff in Honduras' rate.
The murder rates for 2000-2010 come from LPG. For Guatemala, the 2011 rate comes from here (it looks like they've added sixty-three murders since my last post). For El Salvador, the rate is based on a population of 6.2 million. And here is the data on Honduras as reported by La Tribuna..
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