Here's the summary:
Although she has not publicly stated her intentions, it is clear that First Lady Sandra Torres de Colom intends to run for the Guatemalan Presidency in 2011. Torres, who is to the left of her husband, President Alvaro Colom, is a controversial figure. She is the most able manager in the government, and also the most abrasive. Many poor, rural Guatemalans, ignored by previous governments, are grateful for her Conditional Cash Transfer and other social programs. Many middle- and upper-class urban voters tend to see Torres as a radical populist. Her sex and middle class provincial origins reinforce the upper class' distrust of her. The Guatemalan Constitution bars presidential family members from running, but Torres is likely to challenge that obstacle. Her efforts to do so would generate considerable controversy, given the politicization and corruption in judicial institutions. The First Lady's likely candidacy means that the current GOG is balancing governance with preparing for the 2011 campaign.Most of the talk is pretty harmless and won't cause any problems between the US Embassy and the Guatemala Government. Most people believe Sandra Torres is interested in running for president. As of September 2009, the US saw her as one of the best managers in the government who played a very powerful role behind the scenes in all areas of her "husband's" administration.
we believe the First Lady is by far the best senior manager in government (albeit not a transparent one): She is smart, hard-working, and demands results. At the same time, her abrasiveness has lost her some allies, and we suspect that her subordinates are reluctant to give her or the public bad news.
While there are questions about the constitutionality of her candidacy, the Guatemalan Constitutional Court will likely be sympathetic to permitting her to run. Having this document now available publicly will likely speed up the discussion of who is allowed to run and who is not (See here).
From my quick read, the most damaging / controversial sections of the cable are going to be the following.
There is some element of sexism and classism in the upper and middle classes' opposition to Torres. Guatemala is a conservative society, and the large, indigenous society to which Torres is appealing for support through her social programs is very male-centered...
Sandra Torres de Colom's assertive personality does not sit well with everyone in male-dominated Guatemalan society.That's probably not going to play well.
The second quote is going to be read by some as evidence of Alvaro Colom's intention to remain in office beyond his term or to support his wife's candidacy even though it is unclear whether the constitution permits her to run. It's not clear that is what he is saying, but I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a headline.
Colom has also told the Ambassador that Guatemala's deep-rooted poverty, violence, and impunity could be resolved by the continuity of having the same party in power for two to three presidential terms.Finally, one last quote stands out.
Much will change between now and Fall 2011, but different parties' plans for that distant event are already taking shape and impacting the political landscape. Guatemala's current electorate is distinct from that of many Latin American countries in that it ranges from center-left to hard-right.Either the US does not see the URNG as hard-left or it does not even consider them a part of the political landscape in Guatemala. It reminds me of something the Rodrigo Asturias told me in 2004. He said that the press didn't say anything bad about the URNG in the papers. The problem was that they said nothing about the party at all.
Prensa Libre, El Periodico, and Siglo XXI have additional coverage while President Colom has already stated that the release of this document and others will not cause problems between our two governments.
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