Wikileaks El Salvador IV

The subject of the second fourth released Wikileaks cable on El Salvador is "With ARENA Fractured, Funes is FMLN's Only Rival."  The document was written by the US Charge d'Affairs Robert Blau on January 26, 2010. 

Here's the summary:

Eight months into the Funes presidency, the GOES can best be characterized as schizophrenic. The part of the government that Funes controls is moderate, pragmatic, responsibly left-of-center and friendly to the USG. The part he has ceded to hard-line elements of the (left-wing) Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN) is seeking to carry out the Bolivarian,
Chavista game-plan, including implacable hostility towards the USG.

Divisions on the right have given the FMLN a dominant position in the Legislative Assembly. However, the FMLN does not have an outright majority in the legislature, and it faces strong opposition in the popular and independent-minded President Funes. Funes's popularity could erode quickly if his administration does not start showing visible results in reducing violent crime and reviving the economy. The government's long-run inability to tackle crime or produce economic growth, coupled with petty infighting and corruption within the country's political parties, raises questions about the future of democratic governance in El Salvador.

A few quick hits - First, I don't think that it is accurate to say that the hard-line elements of the FMLN are "seeking to carry out the Bolivarian, Chavista game-plan, including implacable hostility towards the USG."  The hard-line elements of the FMLN were Chavista before Chavez and will probably remain so when he is gone.  While they share affinity for Chavez and might receive support from him, it's not all about Chavez.  It doesn't allow policymakers in Washington to objectively weight matters in El Salvador when one side is characterized as Chavista.  Similarly, it doesn't make sense to characterize ARENA as center-right (which Blau does latter in the cable).

Second, I also don't think it is helpful to characterize Funes' foreign policy as "a moderate, pro-U.S. foreign policy."  I imagine that Funes is pursuing a foreign policy that he believes is in the national interests of El Salvador.  Fortunately, for the US and I would say the people of El Salvador, he deems economic and political cooperation on issues such as free trade, democracy promotion, and comprehensive immigration reform to be in the interests of the country.  It's not a "pro-U.S. foreign policy" but a "pro-El Salvador policy that seeks strong ties with the US."

Third, schizophrenic?  I'm not a doctor (well, not that kind) but here is Google health on schizophrenia:

Schizophrenia is a mental disorder that makes it difficult to tell the difference between real and unreal experiences, to think logically, to have normal emotional responses, and to behave normally in social situations.

All I see from the cable is a description of intraparty rivalries.  The president and vice president represent different factions of the FMLN-Friends of Mauricio coalition that came to power in 2009.  The two factions are competing to guide the country over the next 3+ years and beyond.  Funes has control over foreign and economic policy as well as the military.  Ceren and other hard-line elements of the FMLN are in charge of labor and education. 

Finally, how different would the cable have read during the twenty years of ARENA rule?  There are serious divisions within the party over the government's economic model and its approach to crime.  There are leadership battles within the executive branch and the party in preparation for the upcoming elections.  At the same time, the opposition (FMLN) is in chaos and the moderate members have been purged (Villalobos, Guardado, etc.). We might never know what those cables said, but they might not have been too different from the recent revelations.

Most of the remaining analysis in the cable is mere speculation.  The embassy is trying to work to understand the divisions within ARENA and the FMLN.  ARENA's division led to the creation of GANA.  There's some serious disagreement between Cristiani (and others) and the corrupt Saca.  One of the interesting tidbits here was Cristiani's orders to ARENA last January.

XXXXXXXXXXXX said that ARENA president Alfredo Cristiani has instructed party leaders to focus their criticism on the FMLN and avoid attacking GANA or President Funes, both of which ARENA views as potential allies. Until the 2012 legislative elections, however, ARENA will remain a marginalized force in national politics.

I'm not sure about a potential alliance.  It seems like smart politics to not attack a president with a near 90% approval rating.  At the same time, don't attack GANA because all new political parties that have splintered from ARENA and the FMLN have failed.  There's good reason to believe that the same would occur with GANA.