State of Siege in Alta Verapaz

As I am sure that you've heard by now, Alvaro Colom has declared a state of siege in northern Guatemala.  Hemispheric Brief has a pretty comprehensive write-up on the operation so I'll just quote a bit and send you there.

The Guatemalan military declared a state of siege in the northern province of Alta Verapaz Sunday, allowing the army to “detain suspects without warrants, conduct warrantless searches, prohibit gun possession and public gatherings, and control the local news media.” The AP reports that the measure comes amidst growing concerns over Mexican drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) active in the region, specifically los Zetas. For now it appears the state of exception will be in effect for at least one month, but President Alvaro Colom indicated Sunday that he would consider extending it for “as long as necessary.”

The president’s spokesman Ronaldo Robles, meanwhile, said the measures were intended to “bring peace to the people and recover their confidence in the government.”

So far, the Guatemalan Government is saying little about the siege.  Last night, the offensive might have led to the arrest of fifteen people linked to organized crime, but neither the Minister of Defense Abraham Valenzuela nor the Interior Minister Carlos Menocal has confirmed the arrests (Prensa Libre).

Claudia Samayoa (Unidad de Protección a Defensoras y Defensores de Derechos Humanos, Udefegua) has criticized the state of siege by arguing that that last seven states of prevention have failed.  On the other hand, the Archbishop of Guatemala Óscar Julio Vian considers the siege necessary in order to bring security to the people of Alta Verapaz (Siglo XXI).  Colom also said that he did not like the idea of a state of siege but he believes that it is necessary to search homes, to obtain information, and to capture people (El Periodico).

Obviously, I don't think that anyone views the state of siege in Alta Verapaz for thirty days or so a long-term solution to the insecurity lived by the inhabitants of the department or the country.  In the short-term we're likely to see (hopefully?) some high profile arrests and a period of calm in the department while members of organized crime, particularly the Zetas, go underground or simply relocate during the siege.  That would be good for the people of this department, but not so much for those living in neighboring areas. 

On the other hand, we could see an escalation of violence in Alta Verapaz (Ciudad Juarez anyone?) as drug traffickers and organized crime dig their heels in against a poorly trained and equipped Guatemalan military.

Stay tuned.