The Peten - the next target?

One of the reasons why we should be skeptical about this weekend's state of siege launch in Alta Verapaz, at least when it comes to the country as a whole, comes from a story in today's BBC News.

Visit Guatemala's Peten region on the border with Mexico and Belize, and it soon becomes clear why Mexican drug cartels are moving some of their operations into Central American nations.

The Peten, a scarcely populated rainforest covering more 30,000 sq km (11,500sq miles), was the cradle of Mayan civilisation.

Today it is widely considered a haven for criminal activities ranging from human trafficking to illegal logging, and, principally, drug smuggling...

Only 250 young soldiers are in charge of patrolling a 5,000sq km area of the Peten.

No matter how successful (or not) the Alta Verapaz operation is, there are plenty of other areas in Guatemala where the DTOs can operate with near total impunity.

And even if the Guatemalan and Mexican authorities somehow close off the land and air routes, there are always the sea routes.  Fox News (see here, here, and here) has had several stories in recent days about the lack of security in the Peten and Alta Verpaz and the two regions were also the focus of a Mexico Wikileaks cable (See here and here).