Two years into Mauricio Funes' five-year term in office, 65% of San Salvador's residents approve of the job that he is doing.* Fifty-eight per cent characterize his administration's performance as "good" and 7% as "very good." On the other hand, 27% say that Funes is doing a "very bad" job and 7% a "very bad" job (Funes recibe apoyo del 65% de la población).
Sixty per cent also say that they do not believe that the FMLN and Funes are resolving the country's problems. If that's the case, it's truly surprising that Funes' approval numbers have remain so high. I don't know for sure but Salvadorans might be comparing his performance to that of former President Tony Saca or to what might have happened had ARENA's candidate been elected.
In that sense, Funes isn't doing a great job tackling the country's economic and crime problems but he is doing a better job than his predecessor and to anyone else who might have been elected in 2009. Either way, unless country conditions improve, it's hard to imagine his high approval numbers lasting for the next three years. That's not good for him or the FMLN heading up to the 2014 presidential elections.
While Funes has his job for another 3 years, the country's mayors and members of congress stand for reelection in March 2012. Nine months out from the elections, the FMLN maintains a slight lead over ARENA. Twenty-seven percent of those polled indicated that they would vote for the FMLN if mayoral elections were held tomorrow while 25% would vote for ARENA. Thirty per cent said that they did not know for whom they would vote (FMLN y ARENA en cerrada lucha).
Approximately 10% said that they did not plan on voting. That leaves another 10% split among the remaining political parties. In mayoral elections, GANA has the support of 4.2%. While it remains unclear whether the PCN or the PDC will be allowed to participate in the March elections, neither is likely to make much of a splash. The two parties combined received 6% of the public's support (PCN - 3.6% and PDC - 2.4%). The CD and a generic independent candidate both receive 0.1%.
In terms of the Legislative Assembly, the FMLN's lead is more significant. Twenty-eight per cent said that they would vote for the FMLN if the elections were held tomorrow while 21% chose ARENA. The survey results are roughly the same for congressional elections (GANA - 4.5%; PCN - 3%; PDC - 2%).
Today's newspaper focus on Funes' high approval numbers is masking what appears to be a highly vulnerable FMLN heading into next year's elections. Given the problems in ARENA and the high approval numbers for President Funes during the last two years, I am a bit surprised that the distance between the FMLN and ARENA in voting intention isn't greater. In fact, while not entirely comparable, the FMLN's advantage over ARENA has declined in recent months (Poll Numbers in El Salvador). The FMLN used to have a 10 point advantage in voter intention for congress and 6 points for mayors. It's now at 7 and 2 points respectively. That can't be good heading in to the summer months.
*The survey was carried out by JBS Opinión Pública for El Diario de Hoy during the week of May 14-18, 2011. The survey has a margin of error is +/-3.5% and a level of confidence of 97.5%. The survey was carried out among 1,193 residents of San Salvador. While San Salvador is the capital and comprises nearly 50% of the country's population, it's not a nationwide poll and shouldn't be taken as such.
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