New Poll Numbers in Guatemala

Siglo 21 and Vox Latina released poll numbers today. This is Siglo XXI and Vox Latina's first presidential poll for the 2011 election. 1,200 surveys were carried out in both urban and rural areas of Guatemala between April 25 and May 1. The survey has a margin of error of 3.8%.

According to their polling, the Patriotic Party's (PP) Otto Perez Molina holds a 16.5 point advantage over the National Unity for Hope's (UNE) Sandra Torres. Thirty-seven per cent of those surveyed stated that they would vote for Perez Molina while 21% preferred Torres. Twenty per cent of those polled were undecided.

Depending on how the undecideds break and what else happens over the next four months, there is a good chance that a second round will be needed to decide the election. When Guatemalans were asked whether they would vote for Perez Molina or Torres in a second round, 55% chose the general and only 18% chose Torres.

In terms of the breakdown of each candidate's support, Torres did better among Guatemalans living in the center of the country and among those with with no education. Her numbers are also better among those on the lower end of the economic scale, particularly among those who earn less than 2k quetzal per month. Torres does better among those between the ages of 36 and 55 and worse among those between 18 and 35 years of age. Torres also does better among the indigenous than Garifuna.

Perez Molina has greater support in the north and among those with a secondary level of education. He also performs better among those who earn more than 4k quetzal per month. He polls stronger among those 18 to 35 and weaker among those 56 years of age and older. Perez Molina also does better among the Garifuna than among the country's indigenous
Finally, Perez has 39% and Torres 19% of the ladino's voting intentions.

Manuel Baldizón of LIDER and Eduardo Suger of CREO are in the best position should the courts block Torres's candidacy. Baldizón's (6.8%) support is a little higher than Suger's (6.5%), but statistically there's no difference. Borge y Asociados' previous polls for El Periodico also had Baldizón ahead of Suger as of their April survey though the margin was greater.

Here are the remaining candidates: Harold Caballeros (Viva-EG) is at 4.6%. Zury Rios of the FGR has 1.6%. Rigoberta Menchu of the Frente Amplio has 1.3%. Finally, Mario Estrada (UCN), Juan Gutierrez of the PAN, and Adela de Torrebiarte of the ADN all come in with less than 1% support.

This poll is just another indication that the race is between Otto Perez Molina and Sandra Torres. It's possible that Perez Molina will win in a first round on September 11, but that's by no means certain. CREO and LIDER should be happy with these recent poll numbers. Their presidential candidates are in a good position should Torers be disqualified and, more importantly perhaps, their "strong" support might help elect a few more deputies to congress for each party.