PDC and PCN are No More

On Friday, the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice (CSJ) in El Salvador ordered the country's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) to disband both the Christian Democratic Party (PDC) and the National Conciliation Party. The CJS declared that both the PDC and the PCN should have been disbanded after the 2004 presidential election.(Yahoo)

In the PCN's case, it captured 2.71% of the presidential vote, less than the 3% mandated by Salvadoran electoral laws. The PDC, on the other hand, ran in a coalition with the United Democratic Center (CDU). The PDC-CDU candidate captured 3.9% of the vote, falling short of the 6% threshold coalition participants need to survive.

The court also declared part of January 19, 2005's Legislative Decree No. 586, unconstitutional. This legislative decree kept the PCN and PDC alive even though neither had not surpassed the minimum vote. The court maintained, unsurprisingly, that it was unconstitutional to legislate retroactively. Neither party can appeal the ruling. (Contrapunto, El Nuevo Herald)

The court stated that the PDC and the PCN are free to compete in the 2012 elections. However, just like every other new political party, each must collect 50,000 signatures and meet all the requirements for new political parties of Salvadoran electoral laws. Analysts say that it takes parties three-to-four months to fulfill the requirements making the mid-November deadline for next year's election tight.

The PCN was formed by military officials and PDC dissidents in 1961. The military ruled through the PCN for the next twenty years until the PDC, founded in 1945, began to "rule" as part of the US-backed counterinsurgency campaign in the 1980s. Today, both parties are shells of their former selves as the PDC has 2 representatives and the PCN 10 in the current Legislative Assembly.

I think that it's a little early to tell, but the analysts that ContraPunto spoke to believe that GANA is the big winner here. If the PDC/PCN 2009 votes were protest votes (as in anybody but the FMLN or ARENA), sure GANA will most likely pick up those votes. However, the PCN and ARENA have always (for the most part) been close and it wouldn't be unreasonable for the PCN's supporters to switch to ARENA. With regards to the PDC, several of their current officials are former FMLN and it's also possible that their supporters will vote FMLN in 2012. They might support GANA, but it's probably a little too early to tell.

Another possible beneficiary of the decision is Funes. The court's ruling has to affect Mauricio Funes and his supporters' calculations as they decide whether to transform the "Citizens Movement for Change” into an official political party and run candidates in either 2012 or 2014.

(What do you think Christine?)