August Poll Numbers in Guatemala

El Periodico and Borge y Asociados published August poll numbers for the upcoming presidential elections in Guatemala. The poll was carried out between August 5 and 11. They polled with and without Sandra Torres but these are the results without her on the ballot.. 

Otto Perez Molina maintains a sizable lead over his nearest competitors. 45% of those polled responded that they intended to vote for Perez. Second-place is still too close to call but slightly favors Eduardo Suger (CREO) over Manuel Baldizon (LIDER). 11.7% would vote for Suger and 10.7% for Baldizon. Mario Estrada (UCN) came in fourth with 3.1% and Patricia de Arzu fifth with 2.3%. 18% did not respond or responded that they did not know.


It's unlikely that anyone will overtake Perez between now and September's election, but we have to expect some movement. The Constitutional Court decided Sandra Torres' fate right in the middle of when the survey was in the field. Harold Caballeros (Viva-EG) only received an ok from the CSJ today (8 in favor and 5 against) so he will be on the ballot unless someone appeals the decision to the CC. Sandra Torres is encouraging her supporters to vote for UNE-GANA's congressional and municipal candidates but to vote null for president. These issues will effect September's poll and determine whether a second round is needed.


As so here is the ballot for Guatemalans on September 11 (the binomials are listed in the order that their candidacies were accepted).

Siglo XXI

In other news, Julián Acoj Morales is the fifth person arrested for participating in the Plan de Sanchez massacre and Plaza Publica has begun publishing more Wikileaks documents, the first of which deals with a meeting between the US Ambassador and Otto Perez Molina in September 2007 between rounds one and two of that year's presidential elections.