Prensa Libre and Prodatos published new poll numbers yesterday. Prensa Libre characterized the poll results as having shown little change in the preference for presidential candidates. That's true, but the results do indicate that Torres has narrowed the gap between her and Perez Molina quite a bit. Well, at least Perez Molina's support has dropped a bit.
Otto Perez Molina still leads all candidates having captured 37% support. Sandra Torres is second with 17%. Perez's support is down ~5% and Torres' is up ~2% leaving them separated by 20.4% (a reduction from from 27.4%) with one month to go (actually one more court decision to go).
~25% remain undecided and we don't exactly know what's going to happen with Torres and the Constitutional Court. Heather Berkman, an analyst at Eurasia Group in New York believes that “Although the polls heavily favor Perez Molina, Torres is probably more competitive than polls suggest...A positive decision from the constitutional court would likely prompt a surge in her numbers.”
It's quite possible and probably likely that Torres would get some bump in support. However, I'm not sure how much it would matter. She still trails by over 20% and every poll has indicated that Perez Molina would win pretty easily in a second round.
I'm more worried about the CC giving Torres' campaign a green light. I get the feeling that the societal response to a decision by the CC to allow her to run would be met much worse than a decision to uphold the RC, TSE, and CSJ rulings.
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