Sandra Torres' Plan B

Prensa Libre

I know that I've said this a few times but

Sandra Torres and Alvaro Colom's decision to divorce so that she can run for president is another example of the weakness of Guatemala's political parties. UNE's been around for a decade and is one of the larger party's in the congress yet it couldn't come up with a candidate that did not confront constitutional barriers to office.

That's still the case and is made worse by the fact that even though there was a very good likelihood that Torres wouldn't be allowed to run for office, they hadn't thought through a Plan B. 

UNE and GANA possess two-thirds of the country's congressional seats and were the only ones capable of mounting a serious challenge against Otto Perez Molina. So Plan B is that UNE and GANA have no presidential candidate but that they are going all in in support of the coalition's congressional and mayoral candidates. The leadership is asking the rank and file to remain calm, to await instructions, and not to partake in the Guatemalan past time of party switching. Sandra Torres is going to continue to travel the country drumming up support for their candidates.

Will it work? I don't know. Not having a presidential candidate is certainly going to hurt. There's only one month remaining before the elections so it's a little late for candidates to switch parties. What about the voters? They have plenty of time to switch loyalties?

Initial reactions from analysts are all over the place. Not having Torres on the ballot is going to help Otto Perez Molina and the Patriotic Party. When the second most popular candidate gets knocked from the ballot, it's hard to see that as anything other than a winner for the front runner.

On the other hand, there's a good chance that not having Torres on the ballot is going to help the smaller parties. Programmatically, it's hard to envision UNE-GANA voters defecting to the PP. They're either going to stay home or vote for one of the smaller parties. 

Which smaller party might they vote for? Nobody really knows except that it’s not likely to be Adela de Torrebiarte’s ADN. UNE's voters might go to Eduardo Suger of CREO.  Some leftists within the UNE coalition might throw their vote to Rigoberta Menchu and the Frente Amplio. GANA's voters might go to Manuel Baldizon of LIDER. Others will support the Mario Estrada of the UCN. There's no clear consensus on who is going to reap the benefits of not having Torres in the race.

I'm wondering whether the Patriotic Party is going to be the beneficiary of strategic voting on the part of UNE's supporters, particularly in the countryside. UNE has amassed a lot of support in the countryside in no small part due to the government's social programs. The PP has said that it is going to continue the programs but that a PP administration will ensure that it is more effective and transparent. They are not going to use the programs’ resources to benefit the governing party (like UNE did), just the people of Guatemala.

If you are a voter living in a rural community heavily dependent upon government social programs, doesn't it make sense for you and other members of the community to throw your vote behind the candidate that is nearly certain to emerge victorious? That is, of course, if you have no qualms voting for someone who might have committed war crimes not too long ago.