ARENA - Don't call it a comeback

El Salvador.com

The ARENA party appears to have found new life five months before legislative and municipal elections in El Salvador. ARENA finished behind the FMLN with 32 legislative seats (out of 84) and 39% of the vote in 2009. It then lost the presidency months later which it had held for two decades. A terrible presidential candidate and postelection blues tore the party apart when twelve dissidents left ARENA months later and went on to form the Grand Alliance for National Unity (GANA) in January 2010. ARENA has 18 members of congress.

ARENA now looks poised to make a comeback in March's elections. However, it's not because they have done anything particularly well since leaving office (i.e., Decree 743, response to red alerts issued by Spain). ARENA is poised to make a comeback because most Salvadorans believe that security and economic conditions in the country have worsened since Funes took office. There's also just a general level of disenchantment with his government. These are really the same reasons that led to the FMLN winning in 2009 and the reasons that it will likely suffer some losses in 2012.

In March, we'll have the FMLN, ARENA, GANA, Democratic Center (DC) and Partido Popular (PP) as well as the Socialist Party of El Salvador (PSOE), the ex-PCN National Conciliation (CN), and the ex-PDC Party of Hope (PE) competing in municipal and legislative elections. The PCN and PDC were cancelled but they'll just compete under different names. 

GANA might take some votes from ARENA but I think that it is more likely that they will suffer the same fate as those that defected from the FMLN to form new parties (the PD, FDR, and MR anyone?).

Will a new ARENA emerge in 2012? We’ll just have to wait and see. They have a new code of ethics and have indicated a willingness to work with other political parties to advance the interests of the nation.