Lots of news stories this weekend. Here are a few to skim through.
Revista Y Que has a list of notable candidates competing for congress on Sunday. (Spanish)
Guatemala Election 2011: Otto Pérez Molina Takes The Lead (Huffington Post) They lost me when they listed Rigoberta Menchu, Baldizon, and Suger as his competitors. Menchu? On the other hand, she is the only candidate that most people outside of Guatemala will recognize.
Danilo Valladares has More Not Always Better for Women at IPS.
Manuel Vogt takes on the issue of the lack of indigenous people in the government at El Periodico. (Spanish)
Sonia Perez has Former general leads polls for Guatemala president for the AP. It's good that she mentions (sort of) that Perez has been the front runner ever since his loss to Colom in 2007. Runner ups generally win the next presidential election.
However, she also writes that "The deeply divided country has a largely white elite and impoverished Indian majority, with the war leaving a legacy of rampant corruption and a culture of violence." The legacy of rampant corruption and a culture of violence springs more from the colonial and post-colonial period when a small, privileged elite dominated. In fact, for many, that's what led to the war in the first place. Sure the corruption and violence has taken on new forms in recent decades, but corruption and violence predate the war.
However, she also writes that "The deeply divided country has a largely white elite and impoverished Indian majority, with the war leaving a legacy of rampant corruption and a culture of violence." The legacy of rampant corruption and a culture of violence springs more from the colonial and post-colonial period when a small, privileged elite dominated. In fact, for many, that's what led to the war in the first place. Sure the corruption and violence has taken on new forms in recent decades, but corruption and violence predate the war.
Anastasia Moloney has Anti-Corruption Views - Corruption concerns mar Guatemala elections at Trust.org. It looks like a summary of what others have written. However (and it's not just her), I would like to see people who are writing about Guatemala right now better defend statements like the "most expensive [yes] and violent elections [not compared to 2008]" or "spiralling violence" [as the murder rate continues to improve or remain unchanged]. See also Gangs, drugs fuel violence in Guatemala on CNN.
The Washington Office on Latin America has running commentary on this weekend's elections here.
Plaza Publica has an important article on how we should not place too much faith in this year's polls because (1) the polls were all over the place in 2007 and (2) most polls were conducted with candidates who did not end up running (Torres, Alvaro Arzu, Zury Rios). It's an important point.
However, the 2007 polls had Colom consistently in first prior to the first round election. He then won the first round. It wasn't until the months between the first and the second round that Perez took the lead in the polls before eventually losing on election day. Otto Perez has led this one throughout, sometimes by a lot and sometimes by a few points. Even the polls that asked about a second round between Perez and any other candidate, he wins easily.
However, the 2007 polls had Colom consistently in first prior to the first round election. He then won the first round. It wasn't until the months between the first and the second round that Perez took the lead in the polls before eventually losing on election day. Otto Perez has led this one throughout, sometimes by a lot and sometimes by a few points. Even the polls that asked about a second round between Perez and any other candidate, he wins easily.
Finally, Carin Zissis has a nice quick rundown on the recent campaign with Guatemala Readies for Vote after Troubled Campaign Cycle.
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