More Poll Numbers and Guatemala Links

According to a new poll from El Periodico and Borge y Asociados, Otto Perez Molina maintains a comfortable (30%) lead over his nearest competitors. Forty-nine percent of those polled intend to vote for Perez, 18% for Manuel Baldizon, 12% for Eduardo Suger, and 4% for Harold Caballeros.

Nuestro Diario's most recent poll has Perez with 46%, Baldizon with 21%, and Suger with 15%

It looks like a toss-up heading into Sunday's contest - Perez will win in the first round or he and Baldizon will advance to a November runoff.

Congress will be an interesting race especially because ~20% still don't know who they are going to vote for.

• Partido Patriota 33.1%
• LIDER 9.3
• UNE 6.8
• Creo 5.6
• Viva 4.6
• UCN 2.3
• Unionista 1.3
• GANA 1.2
• FRG 1.2
• PAN 0.6
• Winaq 0.5
• EG 0.4
• Victoria 0.3
• CASA 0.1
• None 12%

It looks like most of these political parties will disappear unless they win a departmental congressional seat.

Here are more links and things of interest.

Guatemala Elections: Mapping the Threat from Organized Crime

Manuel Baldizon has his own polling that indicates he is only 2% points behind General Perez

Nearly 80% think that their fellow citizens do not know who they are voting for.

Consumers of illegal drugs share the blame for drug-related violence and killings, Guatemalan President Alvaro Colom has told BBC Mundo.

Guatemala's next president will inherit a bankrupt country.

In recent years, the last six months have been more violent than the first six months. Therefore, Guatemala is more likely to see its murder rate equal or slightly surpass last year's rate. 

Finally, here's another extended campaign video from Rigoberta Menchu and the Frente Amplio. Menchu's support came in at 1.4% in the El Periodico poll and 1.8% in the Nuestro Diario poll.