The Frente Amplio and Final Polling Numbers

Bob Briton has an interview with the URNG-MAIZ's representative in Australia, Ovidio Orellana. In the interview, Orellana discusses how the forces on the left (URNG-MAIZ, ANN, Winaq, and MR) came together to form the leftist Broad Front, the party's concern with the social, economic and environmental effects of mining operations, and its concern with an administration led by General Otto Perez Molina. 

Orellana also discusses the importance of selecting Rigoberta Menchu Tum, an indigenous woman, as its presidential candidate. 

The decision taken by the assembly that the candidate for president has to be Rigoberta Menchú was a good one. It is important for the people of the country that the candidate should be an Indigenous woman. She has lived with heavy discrimination and racism her whole life and, as is well known, in 1992 she won the Nobel Peace Prize. She is an important figure. So she was nominated as the presidential candidate with Aníbal García as vice-president.

Unfortunately, I still don't think that selecting her was a wise decision. In the poll just released by Siglo XXI and Vox Latina, Menchu has so far been able to capture 1.1% of the national vote. That's well below the 3% she received in 2007 and is really disappointing following Sandra Torres' removal from the race. The Frente Amplio must have expected some bump in support from those on the left and in the rural areas of the country that had initially supported Torres' candidacy.

In today's poll, Otto Perez Molina's support (45%) dropped eight points from July's poll, but he still leads by a comfortable margin over his nearest competitors. Manuel Baldizon (22.5%) of LIDER has picked up much of Torres' support and now has separated himself from Eduardo Suger of CREO (18.4%) for second place. While Perez can win a first round victory with over 50% of the vote, it still looks likely that a runoff will be needed to decide Guatemala's next president.

In terms of breaking down some of the poll numbers, Perez leads in support among 

• those between the ages of 18-35 (47%), 
• those with lower education levels (only primary - 57%), 
• women (46%) 
• urban areas (46%), and 
• ladinos (46%).

Baldizon leads in support among the indigenous (38%), but it's unclear what support Perez has among the same population.

While anything can happen in the next few days, the smart money is on a runoff between Perez and Baldizon in November.