Even though women voters outnumbered men in Guatemala's September 11 election, only 7 mayoral positions were won by women. Seven out of 333 is disappointing but it is one more than female candidates for mayor won in 2007.
While Nineth Montengro and the Encounter for Guatemala (EG) might not be big fans of Manuel Baldizon, it's tough to imagine them supporting Otto Perez Molina in the second around. However, the EG appears undecided between Baldizon, Perez, and neutrality and won't have a decision before midweek. Montenegro is scheduled to meet with Perez on Tuesday. Its coalition partner, Harold Caballeros of ViVa has already thrown his support behind Perez and will be making public appearances besides the former general.
Perez also says that he has the support of 25 mayors and six members of congress elected as members of UNE-GANA.
Three mayors and one congressman from San Marcos make up those URNG who have already decided to support Baldizon in round two. For the URNG, the choice was Baldizon or no one.
On the one hand, coalition building between rounds 1 and 2 is healthy in a system run by majority runoff electoral rules. It gives some of the smaller parties (ViVa, EG, URNG, etc.) the ability to leverage its showing in the first round into promises of government positions or policy promises in return for support in round two.
On the other hand, what's going on right now also reflects the weakness of Guatemala's political party system. The the top two candidates looking for support among individual mayors and members of congress. There's little search for programmatic coherence. The ViVa-EG coalition is so far split on who to vote for in round two and if Perez is correct, the UNE-GANA coalition looks like it'll have members supporting Perez and Baldizon.
Honestly, I have no idea how well these endorsements will translate into additional electoral support in round two. It's probably better to have them than to not have them, but it's not clear that those who support the URNG or EG are going to be influenced by whether the party leadership endorses Baldizon or Perez.
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